The latest aquaculture industry survey by Amsterdam-based Rabobank, this time in conjunction with the Global Seafood Alliance, reveals an optimistic outlook for 2024 in many major industry sectors, including shellfish and finfish. However, there are some worries about the state of the global economy which could dampen industry plans for big expansion in production and trade. In particular, industry players in the largest shellfish sector—shrimp—expect a global production turnaround from recent lows, led by Ecuador. This turnaround depends in large part on price strength with continued demand in China, which is not 100% certain. Ecuadorean supply growth also depends on any impacts of El Niño in 2024, currently unknown, adding some more uncertainty to future shrimp market conditions worldwide. Production in Asia is likely to end its 2023 decline—the first drop in a decade—as suppliers in India and Vietnam turn their US- and Europe-bound exports around.
Among farmed finfish, salmon is the leading species group by value. Industry participants and observers expect the end of a two-year global production lull, and assuming there are no disease outbreaks or other supply-side disasters, output is expected to recover slightly. Norway, the global leader, is expecting moderate growth in output in both 2024 and 2025, while production in second-place Chile seems less certain with continuing biological threats as well as potential impacts from El Niño. World production of tilapia is likely to continue its moderate growth in recent years. The largest producers, China and Indonesia, have the potential to shift their species focus from tilapia, so production depends on trends in relative finfish prices.
All these forecasts depend on global “macro-events” such as recessions and recoveries and the factors that cause them, such as wars, energy shocks, and so on. These events can affect fish production, consumption, transport, etc., but are completely out of the control of the industry and market. Nevertheless, there is ample optimism indicated by industry respondents to Rabobank’s survey for this year’s global aquaculture outlook.