The highest growth rates for tilapia production are now found in Latin America.
There is positive news for 2023 for large segments of the world’s aquaculture industry, including shrimp, salmon, tilapia, and pangasius. Experts from Netherlands-based Rabobank presented their predictions for 2023 at the Global Seafood Alliance’s recent GOAL Conference 2022 in Seattle, including estimates of output trends in major producing countries and demand or market conditions in large consuming parts of the world. Their presentation at the GOAL Conference was based on a report from Rabobank’s RaboResearch branch, “What to Expect in the Aquaculture Industry in 2023,” available at https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/animal-protein/what-to-expect-in-the-aquaculture-industry-in-2023.html.
Tropical shrimp looks to be a big winner, especially in Ecuador where production in 2023 may grow by 30% in volume, an increase of 300,000 tonnes, on par with Thailand’s total annual production. Total Latin American output is expected to exceed 2 million tonnes. Total production in Asia, the world’s leading region led by China, saw a slight decline in 2022 but is expected to bounce back in 2023, with output exceeding 4 million tonnes. Overall, global shrimp supply is projected to grow by 4.2%. “Normalise” is a market analysis codeword for “calm down”, and after a few volatile years, salmon producers in Norway and Chile will “normalise” salmon production in 2023 to historically lower growth rates, because markets need steady rather than fluctuating supplies. Thus, Norwegian output, which grew by 12% in 2021 before falling by 0.9% in 2022, will grow by 3.5% in 2023, closer to the long-run average growth rate. Chilean output fell by 8% in 2021 and 0.3% in 2022, but could grow by 2.5% in 2023, which again is closer to long-run trends.
Other important aquaculture species in global trade, including tilapia—with the highest production growth rates now seen in Latin America rather than Asia—and pangasius—still dominated by Asia—are also covered by the report.
